We are going to have a referendum on Welsh Independence. You know it, and I know it.
You will no doubt have watched Nicola Sturgeon’s historic announcement today that there will be a second referendum on Scottish independence. This will happen some time between autumn 2018 and autumn 2019.
So this time in three years, Scotland will be independent.
I said that out loud earlier and it felt good.
You know it’s true, and I know it’s true, but more interestingly, Theresa May knows it.
You can hear it in her voice. You can see it in her eyes. She is thinking ‘holy shit’ and she is stuffing up this interview because in the back of her mind she is scrambling to think of something witty for #SuggestANewNameForTheUK
This is her pre-prepared response remember. Because indyref2 isn’t a shock. And the best that May can do is thirty five seconds. Her voice is cracking and we can all see why.
Scotland is leaving.
I should quote that line where she says that it will bring uncertainty that will result in…uncertainty. But I can’t bring myself to, it’s too God damn awful.
And don’t start me on ‘politics is not a game’, because it’s just too obvious to even go there.
So Scotland is leaving the UK.
And Wales is going to be independent. This is the new most likely scenario, and everybody knows it. It’s like a game of ‘who’s going to blink first’ (except that it’s not a game, but the Unionists are going to carry on as if it is).
So before Wales is independent, first we are going to have a referendum.
Soon seems like a good idea, yes?
Because we hardly need to remind ourselves what the alternative is. What has our First Minister got to say on this historic day in history, when Scotland set the wheels in motion to liberate herself and ensure that the people of Scotland can determine their own destiny?
At this momentous time, Carwyn Jones’ sources said:
“The constitutional future of Scotland is a matter for the people of Scotland… the First Minister is clear that the four nations of the UK are stronger together than apart.”
So it’s basically head back in the sand time. Nothing to see here. No need for Wales to trouble itself with actually having a rigorous debate about something that might concern it’s future. That most definitely concerns Wales’ future.
That was pretty much his stance ahead of the EU referendum. Not our argument….
And look where that got us.
But from today onwards, Wales is preparing for a referendum. End of. We are having one. It is inconceivable that we can face this level of constitutional crisis in the UK, and not have this conversation.
So we are having this conversation.
It is going to be impossible not to this time.
If you are reading this and you are not in Wales, I imagine you’d quite like to move back i’r Hen Wlad right now, because it’s going to be very exciting having an independence referendum…
If I’m honest, I’m actually so excited it’s a little hard to type. I’ve spent an hour on twitter reading all the #indywales tweets, and catching up on #indyref2 stuff that I’ve missed all day because I’ve been caring for the future citizens of an independent Wales…
And I am absolutely starving hungry. I’ve just eaten half the contents of the fridge. It is like my body is saying to me ‘this is going to be massive, you’ll need energy, and lots of it (pauses to eat peanut butter on toast).
Because we are all going to be very busy now. We have a lot to do. We are going to make this happen. So if you aren’t eating your own body weight in toast right now, and bouncing off the walls with nervous energy, then you have missed a memo.
Go on, watch that Nicola Sturgeon clip again. Then Theresa May. And then remember that a year ago Carwyn Jones said this:
‘If we leave the EU our economy will tank’.
You see, he always knew that Brexit would be a disaster for Wales, he just didn’t think it would happen. And he’s going to make the same mistake all over again this time. All the Unionists are in Wales. You can see them all now, adopting the position. It goes like this:
Fingers in ears… and then everybody very loudly say: ‘la la la la la la la la la la’.
And if that sounds like something a stubborn child might do…
And of course he didn’t think that people would vote to leave the EU. He certainly didn’t think that Wales would vote to leave. He misjudged his electorate.
And of course, that wasn’t all he said back then. The full quote is this:
‘… our economy will tank. And we might be in a position at some point in the future where the Welsh people are asking which union – the UK or the EU – we should be a member of’.
Well, guess what Carwyn. We are at that point. And if you are not careful, you will be one of the few people in Wales that are not prepared to ask this question.
So do we think, perchance, Carwyn might be about to misjudge his electorate again?
Do you think there may be a small possibility that all those people who wanted to stick their boot a really long way up the backside of the establishment by voting for Brexit, would pass up the chance to do the same to Theresa May, and every other Westminster Government past and future that has neglected Wales?
Do you think that perhaps, all those people in Wales who didn’t vote for Brexit, might be starting to wonder whether a union with England in the absence of Scotland and probably Northern Ireland, after a hard Brexit, on a ‘tanking economy’ might not look that great an option?
Do you think that people are starting to get curious about the alternatives?
Hell, I can’t even hang out my washing at the moment without the neighbours telling me over the fence that they ‘certainly wouldn’t vote against independence for Wales’.
So, best keep your fingers in your ears Carwyn and friends (by whom I mean people like Andrew RT Davies and Alun Cairns, who may not be best buddies with our First Minister, but who share his unfortunate lack of any ambition, vision or respect for Wales).
Part of me wants to say ‘what are you still doing here, reading this?!’
If you are reading this, then don’t.
Or do, but then straight away afterwards, start making a plan. And write your own blog for heavens sake.
Because it starts today. This is the next chapter in the story of Welsh Independence, and this one is called #indyrefcymru, and it involves you.
You play quite a big part actually.
But before we talk about that, we need to talk about hashtags. Because this stuff is important. Do you think we’d be where we are now if they’d called it #ukleave? or #Brout?
So we need to talk about the fact that #welshref is a really, really bad hashtag.
Firstly. It sounds like its about sport . I don’t have anything against sport, but this isn’t about a football match and the implementation of the offside rule.
Secondly, it doesn’t mention the word indy, which is kind of key here. If you need clues, see #indyref and #indyref2.
Thirdly, ‘Wales’ or ‘Cymru’ are much more empowering words, I think, than ‘Welsh’ which just has that kind of ‘its what other people call us and they don’t always mean it as a compliment’ kind of feeling about it.
So can we get this one sorted today, now? One of you tweeper pollster types do a poll or something?
Because really. #indyrefcymru/#indyrefwales, maybe we can do both depending on which way people are leaning linguistically speaking when they are doing hashtag type things. They’re both a bit longer than #welshref (admit it, its an awful hashtag!!), but I think we can spare the extra five or so letters for something that sounds like we are definitely doing it.
Because we are. Definitely. Having a referendum.
I’m done with all the ‘woe is me/us, we haven’t got a functioning media, all our politicians are as bad as each other and I’m/we’re just so lacking in confidence, blah blah blah’ carry on.
If that’s still where your head is at, get a life coach. Read some self help books. I don’t care what you do, but pull your finger out and get over your ‘we’re not good enough and it won’t happen because of x,y and z’ complex. That’s what they want you to say/think/do.
It’s the psychology of oppression.
And we aren’t doing that anymore.
Hell if you need to, just watch back-to-back youtube videos of Nicola Sturgeon and tell yourself you are Scottish. Whatever you need to do, get over it and do it quickly.
Because who do you think has all the power here?
Who do you think get’s to decide this?
Who do you think can do something about making it happen?
If I can write 30 blogs in eight months on the subject of Welsh Independence (who knew there was so much to write about until I started), then you can do something.
So get on with it. We are having a referendum. Not yet, but soon.
Have you joined yescymru yet?